Managers’ risk and time preferences in economic behavior: Review from the experiments
Main Article Content
Abstract
This survey reviews the recent developments in experimental studies on managers’ preferences, with a focus on issues of experimental design. We concentrate our attention on studies that measure risk and time preferences. We review a number of models of risk and time preferences that have been estimated or otherwise studied using experimental methods, and highlight some issues associated with such models. We then survey thoroughly the theoretical and empirical studies to date in this area outside and in Vietnam. We conclude by discussing some potential research avenues in the future.
Article Details
Keywords
risk preferences, time preferences, experiments, behavioral economics, review
References
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41. Laury SK., McInnes MM., Swarthout JT., 2012, “Avoiding the curves: direct elicitation of time preferences”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 44(3): 181-217.
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43. Liebenehm, S., Waibel, H., 2014, “Simultaneous estimation of risk and time prefer- ences among small-scale cattle farmers in West Africa”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96 (5): 1420-1438.
44. Malesky EJ., Nguyen VC., Tran A., 2014, “The impact of recentralization on public services: A difference-in-differences analysis of the abolition of elected councils in Vietnam”, American Political Science Review, 108(1): 144-168.
45. Malmendier U., Tate G., 2005, “CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment”, Journal of Finance, 60(6): 2661-2700.
46. Malmendier U., Tate G., 2008m, “Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market’s Reaction”, Journal of Financial Economics, 89(1): 20-43.
47. Markowitz H., 1952, “Porfolio selection”, Journal of Finance, 7(1): 77-91.
48. Myer SC., 1977, “The determinants of corporate borrowing”, Journal of Financial Economics, 5: 147-175.
49. Nguyen CV., 2009, “Đo lường hành vi bầy đàn trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam”, Master dissertation.
50. Nguyen DH., 2012, Hành vi của nhà đầu tư trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam, PhD thesis, National Economics University.
51. Nguyen ND., 2015, “Hành vi của nhà quản lý và hoạt động đầu tư tại các doanh nghiệp Việt Nam”, Tạp chí Phát triển và hội nhập, 21.31,
52. Nguyen Q., 2011, “Does nurture matter? Theory and experimental evidence on the effect of working environment on risk and time preferences”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 43(3): 245-270.
53. Nguyen Q., Kim HT., 2019, “Promoting adoption of management practices from the outside: Insights from randomized field experiment”, Journal of Operations management, 65(1): 48-61.
54. Nguyen Q., Leung P., 2013, “Revenue targeting in fisheries”, Environment and Development Economics, 18(5).
55. O’Donoghue T., Matthew R. 1999, “Doing it now or later”, American Economic Review, 89(1): 103-124.
56. Pattillo C., Soderbom M., 2000, “Managerial risk attitudes and firm performance in Ghnaian manufacturing: An empirical analysis based on experimental data”, Working paper.
57. Perrino R., Poteshman A., Weisbach M., 2005, “Measuring investment distortions when risk-averse managers decide whether to undertake risky project”, Financial Management, 34: 21- 60.
58. Prelec D., Loewenstein G., 1991, “Decision making over time and under uncertainty: a common approach”, Management Science, 37:770-786.
59. Prelec D., 1998, “The probability weighting function”, Econometrica, 66(3): 497527.
60. Preston MG., Barata P., 1948, “An experimental study of the auction-value of an uncertain outcome”, America Journal of Psychology, 61(2): 183-193.
61. Quiggin J., 1982, “A theory of anticipated utility”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 3(4): 323-343.
62. Rabin M., 2002, “A perspective on psychology and economics”, European Economic Review 46(4-5): 657-685.
63. Rachlin H, Siegel E., 1994, “Temporal pattering in probabilistic choice”, Organizational, Behavior and Human Decision Process, 59:161-176.
64. Rees-Jones A., 2018, “Quantifying loss-averse tax manipulation”, Review of Economic Studies, 85(2): 1251-1278.
65. Ricciardi V., Simon HK., 2000, “What is behavioral finance?”, Business, Education and Technology Journal, 2(2): 1-9.
66. Roll R., 1986, “The hubris hypothesis of corporate takeovers”, Journal of Busines, 2: 197-216.
67. Schreiber P., Webber M., 2016, “Time inconsistent preferences and the annuitization decision”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 129: 37-55.
68. Shefrin H., 2007, Behavioral Corporate Finance: Decisions that Create Value, McGraw-Hill International Edition.
69. Statman M., Caldwell D., 1987, “Applying behavioral finance to capital budgeting: project terminations”, Financial Management, 27-33.
70. Strotz RH., 1955, “Myopia and Inconsistency in Dynamic Utility Maximization”, Review of Economic Studies, 23(3): 165-180.
71. Tanaka T., Camerer CF., Nguyen Q., 2006, “Poverty, politics, and preferences: Field experiments and survey data from Vietnam”, Working paper.
72. Tanaka T., Camerer CF., Nguyen Q., 2010, “Risk and time preferences: Linking experimental and household survey data from Vietnam”. American Economic Review, 100(1): 557-571.
73. Tran NT., 2010, Phân tích tác động của các nhân tố hành vi đến quyết định của nhà đầu tư cá nhân trên thị trường chứng khoán Hồ Chí Minh, Master dissertation, Ho Chi Minh Economics University.
74. Tran NT., Ho QT., 2007, “Ứng dụng tài chính hành vi vào phân tích thực tiễn”, Tạp chí Phát triển kinh tế, 7.
75. Tversky A, Kahneman D., 1992, “Advances in prospect-theory - cumulative representation of uncertainty”, Journal of Risk Uncertainty, 5(4): 297-32.
76. Vieider, F.M., Martinsson, P., Nam, P.K. and Truong, N., 2019, “Risk preferences and development revisited”, Theory and Decision, 86(1), pp.1-21.
77. Vu DK., 2011, Ứng dụng lý thuyết tài chính hành vi để lý giải cho những bất thường trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam, Master dissertation, Ho Chi Minh Economics University.
78. Yaari ME., 1965, “Convexity in the Theory of choice under risk”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 79(2): 278-90.
2. Allen, F., 2005, “Corporate Governance in Emerging Economics”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 21(2): 164-177.
3. Andersen S., Harrison GW., Lau MI., Rutstrom EE. 2008, “Eliciting risk and time preferences”, Econometrica 76(3): 583-618.
4. Andreoni J., Sprenger C., 2012, “Estimating time preferences from convex budgets”, American Economic Review. 102(7): 3333-3356.
5. Barsegyan, L., Molinari, F., O’Donoghue, T., C.Teitelbaum, J., 2018, “Estimating risk preferences”, Journal of Economic Literature, 56(2): 501-564.
6. Benhabib J., Bisin A., Schotter A., 2010, “Present-bias, quasi-hyperbolic discounting, and fixed costs”, Games and Economic Behavior, 69(2): 205-223.
7. Bertrand M., Schoar A., 2003, “Managing with Style: The Effect of Managers on Corporate Policy”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4): 1169-1208.
8. Bocquého G., Jacquet F., Reynaud A., 2013, “Reversal and magnitude effects in long-term time preferences: results from a field experiment”, Economics Letters, 120(1): 108-111.
9. Bohm-Bawerk, Eugen V., 1971, The Positive Theory of Capital. Translated by William Smart. Reprinted. Freeport, New York: Books for Libraries Press.
10. Caliskan D., Doukas JA., 2015, “CEO risk preferences and dividend policy decisions”, Journal of Corporate Finance, 35: 18-42.
11. Carlsson F., Johansson-Stenman O., and Pham KN., 2014, “Social preferences are stable over long periods of time”, Journal of Public Economics, 117: 104-114.
12. Chaigneau, P., 2013, “Explaining the structure of CEO incentive pay with decreasing relative risk aversion”, Journal of Economics and Business, 67: 4-23.
13. Chen S., Li Z., Zeng., 2014, “Optimal dividend strategies with time-inconsistent preferences”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 46: 150-172.
14. Chunxiang A., Li Z., Wang F., 2016, “Optimal investment strategy under timeinconsistent preferences and high-water mark contract”, Operations Research Letters, 44: 212- 218.
15. Coller M., Williams M.B., 1999, “Eliciting individual discount rates”, Experimental Economics, 2(2): 107-127.
16. Corgnet B., Gomez-Minambres J., Hernan-Gonzalez R., 2018, “Goal setting in the principal-agent model: Weak incentives for strong performance”, Games and Economic Behavior, 109: 311-326.
17. DellaVigna S., 2009, “Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the field”, Journal of Economic Literature, 47(2): 315-372.
18. De Meza D., Webb D., 2007, “Incentive design under loss aversion”, Journal of European Economics Association, 5(1): 66-69.
19. Dittmann I., Maug E., Spalt O., 2010, “Sticks or carrots? Optimal CEO compensation when managers are loss averse”, Journal of Finance, 65(6): 2015-2050.
20. Ericson KM., 2017, “On the Interaction of Memory and Procrastination: Implications for Reminders, Deadlines, and Empirical Estimation”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 15(3): 692-719.
21. Fafchamps M., John P., 1997, “Precautionary saving, credit constraints, and irreversible investment: Theory and Evidence from Semi-arid India”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15(2): 180-194.
22. Fairchild R., 2005, “The effect of managerial overconfidence, asymmetric information, and moral hazard on capital structure decisions”, Journal of Behavioral Finance, 2(4): 46- 68.
23. Fairchild R., 2010, “Behavioural corporate finance: Existing research and future directions”, International Journal of Behavioural Accounting and Finance, 1(4): 277-293.
24. Fisher I., 1931, The theory of Interest, Macmillan, New York.
25. Gervais S., Heaton J.B., Odean T., 2003, Overconfidence, investment policy, and executive stock options. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_ id=361200.
26. Graham J., Harvey C., Puri M., 2012, “Managerial attitudes and corporate actions”, Journal of Financial Economics, 109(1).
27. Hackbarth D., 2002., Managerial optimism, overconfidence, and capital structure decisions. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=362740.
28. Hackbarth D., 2004, Determinants of corporate borrowing: A behavioral perspective. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=575922.
29. Heaton J.B., 2002, “Managerial optimism and corporate finance”, Financial Management 33-45.
30. Herweg F., Muller D., Weinschenk P., 2010, “Binary payment schemes: moral hazard and loss aversion”, American Economic Review, 100(5): 2451-2477.
31. Hirose T., Kato HK., Bremer M., 2009, “Can margin traders predict future stock returns in Japan”, Pacific-Basin Financial Journal, 17: 41-57.
32. Hong Y., Yanxi L., Rui G., Jingjing Z., 2006, “Information structure, risk preference and earnings manipulation behavior - The result of an experimental study”, Accouting Research, 5: 58-65.
33. Ida T., Goto R., 2009, “Simultaneous measurement of time and risk preferences: Stated preference discrete choice modeling analysis depending on smoking behavior”, International Economic Review 50(4): 1169-1182.
34. Kahneman D., Tversky A., 1979, “Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk”, Econometrica, 47(2): 263-291.
35. Karmarkar US., 1978, “Subjectively weighted utility: A descriptive extension of the expected utility model”, Organizational Behavior and Human performance, 21(1): 61-72.
36. Kaplan SN., Klebanov MM., Sorensen M., 2010, “Which CEO characteristics and abilities matter?”, Working paper, University of Chicago.
37. Koch AK, Nafziger J., 2016, “Goals and bracketing under mental accounting”, Journal of Economic Theory, 2016 Mar 31;162:305-51.
38. Kremer, M., Brannen, C., & Glennerster, R., 2013, “The challenge of education and learning in the developing world”, Science, 340: 297-300.
39. Laibson D., 1997, “Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2): 443-477.
40. Lattimore PK., Joanna RB., Ann DW., 1992, “The influence of probability on risky choice: a parametric examination”, Journal of economic behavior and Organization, 17(3): 377-400.
41. Laury SK., McInnes MM., Swarthout JT., 2012, “Avoiding the curves: direct elicitation of time preferences”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 44(3): 181-217.
42. Le TNL., 2009, “Nghiên cứu lý thuyết tài chính hành vi trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam”, Master dissertation, Ho Chi Minh Economics University.
43. Liebenehm, S., Waibel, H., 2014, “Simultaneous estimation of risk and time prefer- ences among small-scale cattle farmers in West Africa”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96 (5): 1420-1438.
44. Malesky EJ., Nguyen VC., Tran A., 2014, “The impact of recentralization on public services: A difference-in-differences analysis of the abolition of elected councils in Vietnam”, American Political Science Review, 108(1): 144-168.
45. Malmendier U., Tate G., 2005, “CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment”, Journal of Finance, 60(6): 2661-2700.
46. Malmendier U., Tate G., 2008m, “Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market’s Reaction”, Journal of Financial Economics, 89(1): 20-43.
47. Markowitz H., 1952, “Porfolio selection”, Journal of Finance, 7(1): 77-91.
48. Myer SC., 1977, “The determinants of corporate borrowing”, Journal of Financial Economics, 5: 147-175.
49. Nguyen CV., 2009, “Đo lường hành vi bầy đàn trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam”, Master dissertation.
50. Nguyen DH., 2012, Hành vi của nhà đầu tư trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam, PhD thesis, National Economics University.
51. Nguyen ND., 2015, “Hành vi của nhà quản lý và hoạt động đầu tư tại các doanh nghiệp Việt Nam”, Tạp chí Phát triển và hội nhập, 21.31,
52. Nguyen Q., 2011, “Does nurture matter? Theory and experimental evidence on the effect of working environment on risk and time preferences”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 43(3): 245-270.
53. Nguyen Q., Kim HT., 2019, “Promoting adoption of management practices from the outside: Insights from randomized field experiment”, Journal of Operations management, 65(1): 48-61.
54. Nguyen Q., Leung P., 2013, “Revenue targeting in fisheries”, Environment and Development Economics, 18(5).
55. O’Donoghue T., Matthew R. 1999, “Doing it now or later”, American Economic Review, 89(1): 103-124.
56. Pattillo C., Soderbom M., 2000, “Managerial risk attitudes and firm performance in Ghnaian manufacturing: An empirical analysis based on experimental data”, Working paper.
57. Perrino R., Poteshman A., Weisbach M., 2005, “Measuring investment distortions when risk-averse managers decide whether to undertake risky project”, Financial Management, 34: 21- 60.
58. Prelec D., Loewenstein G., 1991, “Decision making over time and under uncertainty: a common approach”, Management Science, 37:770-786.
59. Prelec D., 1998, “The probability weighting function”, Econometrica, 66(3): 497527.
60. Preston MG., Barata P., 1948, “An experimental study of the auction-value of an uncertain outcome”, America Journal of Psychology, 61(2): 183-193.
61. Quiggin J., 1982, “A theory of anticipated utility”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 3(4): 323-343.
62. Rabin M., 2002, “A perspective on psychology and economics”, European Economic Review 46(4-5): 657-685.
63. Rachlin H, Siegel E., 1994, “Temporal pattering in probabilistic choice”, Organizational, Behavior and Human Decision Process, 59:161-176.
64. Rees-Jones A., 2018, “Quantifying loss-averse tax manipulation”, Review of Economic Studies, 85(2): 1251-1278.
65. Ricciardi V., Simon HK., 2000, “What is behavioral finance?”, Business, Education and Technology Journal, 2(2): 1-9.
66. Roll R., 1986, “The hubris hypothesis of corporate takeovers”, Journal of Busines, 2: 197-216.
67. Schreiber P., Webber M., 2016, “Time inconsistent preferences and the annuitization decision”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 129: 37-55.
68. Shefrin H., 2007, Behavioral Corporate Finance: Decisions that Create Value, McGraw-Hill International Edition.
69. Statman M., Caldwell D., 1987, “Applying behavioral finance to capital budgeting: project terminations”, Financial Management, 27-33.
70. Strotz RH., 1955, “Myopia and Inconsistency in Dynamic Utility Maximization”, Review of Economic Studies, 23(3): 165-180.
71. Tanaka T., Camerer CF., Nguyen Q., 2006, “Poverty, politics, and preferences: Field experiments and survey data from Vietnam”, Working paper.
72. Tanaka T., Camerer CF., Nguyen Q., 2010, “Risk and time preferences: Linking experimental and household survey data from Vietnam”. American Economic Review, 100(1): 557-571.
73. Tran NT., 2010, Phân tích tác động của các nhân tố hành vi đến quyết định của nhà đầu tư cá nhân trên thị trường chứng khoán Hồ Chí Minh, Master dissertation, Ho Chi Minh Economics University.
74. Tran NT., Ho QT., 2007, “Ứng dụng tài chính hành vi vào phân tích thực tiễn”, Tạp chí Phát triển kinh tế, 7.
75. Tversky A, Kahneman D., 1992, “Advances in prospect-theory - cumulative representation of uncertainty”, Journal of Risk Uncertainty, 5(4): 297-32.
76. Vieider, F.M., Martinsson, P., Nam, P.K. and Truong, N., 2019, “Risk preferences and development revisited”, Theory and Decision, 86(1), pp.1-21.
77. Vu DK., 2011, Ứng dụng lý thuyết tài chính hành vi để lý giải cho những bất thường trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam, Master dissertation, Ho Chi Minh Economics University.
78. Yaari ME., 1965, “Convexity in the Theory of choice under risk”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 79(2): 278-90.