The potential impacts of the EVFTA on Vietnam’s exports of agricultural products: an application of SMART model

Doan Duc Manh1,, Dac Hieu Nguyen1
1 Foreign Trade University, Hanoi, Vietnam

Main Article Content

Abstract

The study aims to identify and analyze the impact of the European Union - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam’s exports of agricultural products. The secondary data from the World Bank and the SMART model under two scenarios are applied. The simulations suggest that the tariff elimination would result in a significant increase in Vietnam’s agricultural exports. The exported value of fish products from Vietnam shows the highest increase. In one scenario, as the European Union (EU) lowers the tariff to other competing countries, Vietnam’s exports of agricultural products exhibit minor reductions compared to the other scenario. Through examining the slight reduction and the revealed comparative advantage of Vietnam, it is found that crustaceans, mollusks, and other aquatic invertebrates are among the agricultural export products of Vietnam that potentially take the most advantage from the EVFTA.

Article Details

References

Armington, P.S. (1969), “A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production”, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 16 No. 1, pp. 159 - 178.
Balassa, B. (1965), “Trade liberalization and ‘revealed’ comparative advantage”, The Manchester School, Vol. 33 No. 2, pp. 99 - 123.
Brauer, R., Vu, D.T. and Frey, N. (2014), “Free trade agreement between the EU and Vietnam: difficult partnership”, KAS International Reports, Vol. 9 No. 1, pp. 31 - 47.
Brill, E., Hochman, E. and Zilberman, D. (1997), “Allocation and pricing at the water district level”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 79 No. 3, pp. 952 - 963.
Ha, C.A.B. (2016), “The panorama for Vietnam’s timber industry with Vietnam-EU free trade agreement (EVFTA): opportunities and challenges”, Working Paper Series, SECO/WTI Academic Cooperation Project.
Hoang, V. (2020), “Chuyen gia noi gi ve co hoi va thach thuc cua viet nam khi tham gia EVFTA”, Tap chi Tai chinh, Available at http://tapchitaichinh.vn/nghien-cuu-trao-doi/chuyen-gia-noi-gi-ve-cohoi-va-thach-thuc-cua-viet-nam-khi-tham-gia-evfta-324013.html (Accessed 14 October, 2020).
ITC Trademap. (2019), “Trade Map - Trade statistics for international business development”, Available at https://www.trademap.org/ (Accessed 14 October, 2020).
Johansson, R.C., Tsur, Y., Roe, T.L., Doukkali, R. and Dinar, A. (2002), “Pricing irrigation water: a review of theory and practice”, Water Policy, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 173 - 179.
Laird, S. and Yeats, A. (1986), “The UNCTAD trade policy simulation model a note on the methodology, data and uses”, UNCTAD Discussion Paper No. 19, Geneva.
Matthews, A. (2020), “The protective effect of EU agricultural tariffs”, Cap Reform, Available at http://capreform.eu/the-protective-effect-of-eu-agricultural-tariffs/ (Accessed 5 June, 2020).
Nguyen, T.H. and Pham, V.P.T. (2020), “Tac dong cua hiep dinh EVFTA den xuat khau mat hang thuy san cua Viet Nam sang thi truong EU”, Tap chi Quan ly va Kinh te quoc te, So 125, tr. 3 - 15.
Philip, M.J., Laurenza, E., Pasini, F.L., Dinh, V.A., Nguyen, H.S., Pham, A.T. and Minh, N.L. (2011), “The free trade agreement between Vietnam and the European Union: quantitative and qualitative impact analysis”, MUTRAP III, Hanoi.
Plummer, M.G., Cheong, D. and Hamanaka, S. (2010), “Methods for Ex-ante economic evaluation of free trade agreements”, Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreements, Asian Development Bank, Philippines, pp. 29 - 71.
Souza, G.S., Alves, E.R.A., Rosaura, G. and Renner, M. (2008), “The meat market in Brazil: a partial equilibrium model”, The Brazilian Journal of Rural Economics and Sociology, Vol. 46 No. 4, pp. 1 - 20.
Vo, T.T., Le, Q.H. and Hoang, T.H. (2018), “Effects of EVFTA on Vietnam’s apparel exports: an application of WITS-SMART simulation model”, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, Vol. 25 No. 2, pp. 4 - 28.
Vu, T.D., Le, T.H. and Masciarelli, F. (2020), “The economic impact of CPTPP on Vietnam’s fisheries exports to CPTPP region”, Journal of International Economics and Management, Vol. 20 No. 2, pp. 1 - 15.
Vu, T.H. (2015), “Possibility to bring about economic benefits of EVFTA and implications for Vietnam’s enterprises”, in International Conference on Emerging Challenges: Managing to Success (ICECH 2015), Hanoi University of Science and Technology, Hanoi, 12 November, 2015.
Vu, T.H. (2016), “Assessing potential impacts of EVFTA on Vietnam’s pharmaceutical imports from the EU: an application of SMART analysis”, Springer Plus, Vol. 5 No. 1, pp. 1 - 22.
World Integrated Trade Solution. (2010), “Theoretical framework of SMART”, World Bank, Available at https://wits.worldbank.org/wits/wits/witshelp/Content/SMART/Trade%20 Effects.htm (Accessed 5 June, 2020).